David Schultz, Professor of Political Science at Hamline University, USA, Visiting Lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), and a member of the MRU LAB Justice Research Laboratory.

Most forecasts for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections currently point to a clear Democratic victory. Donald Trump's approval ratings are at historic lows. The economy is under significant pressure from war-driven inflation and rising fuel prices. Democratic voters appear more motivated to turn out than Republicans. In addition, the latest congressional district maps seem to favor Democrats. Case closed, right?

Not quite.

Most of these forecasts overlook the other side of the story. As many as 59% of Americans view the Democratic Party unfavorably—almost the same share as the Republican Party, which receives a 58% unfavorable rating. Since spring, the political landscape has changed substantially due to congressional redistricting, and the outcomes have become considerably less favorable for Democrats. At the same time, the party is entering the fall campaign amid one of the fiercest internal debates over its ideological direction.

Paradoxically, Democrats are heading into these elections under perhaps the most favorable political circumstances they have enjoyed in years, while simultaneously doing everything they can to make those circumstances more difficult for themselves.

The Numbers Favor Democrats

Major national polls show Donald Trump's approval rating ranging between 35% and 39%, with his net approval standing between -17 and -22 percentage points. A The Economist/YouGov poll released on July 7 found that only 35% approve of the president's performance, while 61% disapprove—one of the weakest results of his presidency.

Among independent voters, who often decide the outcome of competitive elections, only 34% support Trump. This has fallen below the 36% threshold recorded before the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats gained 41 seats in the House of Representatives.

The economy is equally significant. Trump's net approval on inflation stands at -47 percentage points, his worst rating on the issue during his presidency. Only 21% of Americans approve of the administration's handling of gasoline prices, while 77% believe current policies have increased their cost of living.

The war with Iran, now approaching five months without a clear resolution, has placed even greater economic pressure on the White House.

These trends are reflected in the electoral environment. In the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7–10 percentage points. Furthermore, 73% of Democratic voters say these elections are more important to them than previous midterms, compared to only 52% of Republican voters.

Historically, this combination of an unpopular president, economic dissatisfaction, and highly motivated opposition voters has been characteristic of so-called "wave elections," in which the opposition party wins substantially more congressional seats than usual.

What Has Changed Since Spring: Redistricting Has Altered the Picture

Since this forecast was first published in April, political developments have shifted against Democrats.

One of the most significant changes has been congressional redistricting. Virginia voters had approved a constitutional amendment that could have given Democrats four additional House seats. However, on May 8, the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated the referendum because of procedural violations, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene. As a result, Democrats effectively lost those four potential seats.

An even more consequential development came with the U.S. Supreme Court's April 29 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (6–3), which substantially weakened the practical impact of the Voting Rights Act and encouraged a new wave of Republican-led redistricting across Southern states.

Florida and Tennessee have already approved new congressional maps targeting Democratic-held districts, while Louisiana is preparing its own plan. In late May, a federal court temporarily blocked Alabama's Republican redistricting plan, although the case is expected to return to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, in South Carolina, efforts to dismantle Representative Jim Clyburn's majority-Black congressional district have, for now, stalled in the state Senate.

Where the overall redistricting balance appeared nearly neutral in the spring, it now provides Republicans with a structural advantage of approximately 6 to 10 House seats before the national campaign has even begun.

Four Possible Scenarios

This forecast is based not on a single prediction but on four possible election scenarios. They differ not because of Trump's approval ratings, but because of the Democratic Party's public image and its ability to translate favorable political conditions into victories in competitive congressional districts.

If a true "Blue Wave" materializes—meaning economic concerns remain at current levels and Democratic voter enthusiasm stays high through November—the party could win between 235 and 245 House seats and 53 Senate seats. This outcome would require Republicans to remain under the same unfavorable political conditions that exist today.

The baseline scenario assumes current trends remain stable. Under these conditions, Democrats would likely secure 220–228 House seats and 51 Senate seats. That would provide only a narrow majority, dependent on winning nearly every competitive district while capturing key Senate races in Maine, North Carolina, and Michigan, as well as holding Georgia.

If Trump's approval stabilizes in the low 40% range, gasoline prices decline, and Democratic voter enthusiasm fades—as it did in 2022—Democrats could win only 215–220 House seats, placing them right at or slightly below the majority threshold. Although current data do not suggest this is the most likely outcome, it cannot be ruled out.

Finally, if the Democratic Party's internal ideological divisions become the dominant campaign issue and Republicans successfully nationalize recent primary victories by democratic socialists, Democrats would likely fail to reach the 218 seats needed for a House majority, while Republicans would retain control of the Senate.

What Will Decide the Election?

At present, Democrats remain the favorites to regain control of the House of Representatives. Their chances are estimated at 60–65%, slightly higher than the 55–62% projected in the spring. The increase reflects more favorable voter sentiment and worsening economic evaluations, although some of that advantage has been offset by unfavorable redistricting decisions.

The outlook for Senate control remains far less certain. Democrats' chances are estimated at roughly 45–50%, making the battle for the chamber essentially a toss-up.

Nevertheless, the central question between now and November remains unchanged: Can Democrats give voters a reason to vote for them, rather than simply against Donald Trump?

The economic environment is now more favorable to the opposition than it was in the spring. Independent voter support for Trump has fallen below the level historically associated with opposition victories in midterm elections. The conditions for a significant Democratic victory are clearly present.

However, favorable polling does not guarantee a landslide. If Democrats fail to convince voters with a compelling political vision—rather than relying solely on opposition to the president—even today's promising forecasts may fall short. The final answer will come only when the votes are counted in November.