David Schultz, Professor of Political Science at Hamline University, USA, Visiting Lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), and a member of the MRU LAB Justice Research Laboratory.

The U.S. congressional midterm elections held on November 3 significantly changed the country's political landscape. The Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate – while President Donald Trump remains in the White House.

Unlike in Lithuania, where the government depends on the confidence of the Seimas (Parliament), the U.S. president is elected separately from Congress. Therefore, the Democratic victory does not mean a change of president, but it may limit his ability to implement his political agenda.

What do these developments mean for U.S. foreign policy, NATO, Ukraine, and Lithuania's security?

Why Were These Elections Important?

The U.S. president is elected for a four-year term, members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years, and senators serve six-year terms. Approximately one-third of the Senate is up for election every two years.

Midterm elections take place halfway through a president's term. Although the president is not on the ballot, the results are often seen as an indicator of public confidence in the administration's policies.

Historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections. This year, the Democratic victory may have been driven by rising living costs, declining purchasing power, the president's unpopularity, and shifting support among younger and Latino voters.

It is also important that, despite concerns about potential disruptions, the elections proceeded smoothly. This demonstrated the ability of U.S. democratic institutions to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

What Can a Democratic-Controlled Congress Change?

One of Congress's most important powers is control over the federal budget. Congress determines how federal funds are allocated and how much can be spent. With Democrats holding majorities, it will become more difficult for Donald Trump to advance his financial and political priorities.

This is particularly important for Ukraine. A Democratic-controlled Congress will be better positioned to push for continued assistance to Ukraine through major funding legislation and oversee how the presidential administration uses funds that have already been approved.

Congress also has the authority to oversee the executive branch. Its committees can hold hearings, request documents, and investigate administration decisions concerning military deployments, international trade, or relations with Russia.

The Senate can confirm or reject presidential nominees for key government positions, including ambassadors, defense officials, and federal judges.

The House of Representatives can also initiate impeachment proceedings against the president. However, removing him from office would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which the Democrats do not have.

What Does This Mean for NATO and International Security?

Congress has previously adopted measures limiting the president's ability to make unilateral decisions on national security matters.

For example, legislation adopted in 2023 stipulates that the president cannot unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. Such a decision requires either the approval of two-thirds of the Senate or an act of Congress.

Restrictions have also been introduced concerning reductions in the number of U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe. These measures help ensure that U.S. security commitments to its allies do not depend solely on the president's political will.

A Democratic-controlled Congress is likely to take a more active role in defending NATO commitments, maintaining the U.S. military presence in Europe, and supporting Ukraine.

The election results may also strengthen bipartisan cooperation on policy toward Russia. As Moscow seeks to exploit political divisions within the United States, stronger congressional oversight could make such efforts more difficult.

In the Middle East, the Democratic victory could mean increased pressure on Israel to end military operations and stricter oversight of U.S. military assistance.

Why Can't Congress Fully Restrict the President?

Although the Democratic victory has shifted the balance of political power, Congress will not be able to control every presidential decision.

Under the U.S. Constitution, the president serves as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces and holds broad powers in foreign policy and national security.

Donald Trump will still be able to issue executive orders (directives to federal agencies), authorize certain military actions under specific circumstances, impose tariffs, and influence the delivery of assistance already approved by Congress.

Furthermore, the president has veto power, meaning he can refuse to sign legislation passed by Congress. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers.

The United States will therefore enter a period of divided government, in which the president belongs to one political party while the opposing party controls Congress. This arrangement may encourage compromise, but it can also increase the likelihood of political conflict.

Could Donald Trump Become Less Predictable?

One of the most important questions following the elections is how the president himself will respond to the changed political environment.

Donald Trump is serving his second term and, under the U.S. Constitution, cannot be elected to a third. As a result, his decisions may be less influenced by public opinion and future presidential elections.

Two scenarios are possible.

In the first scenario, Republicans preparing for the 2028 presidential election may begin distancing themselves from Trump's unpopular decisions, thereby limiting his political influence.

In the second scenario, facing stronger opposition in domestic politics, the president may shift more of his attention to foreign policy, where his executive powers are broader.

Given Trump's previous decisions and his tendency to use tariffs and political pressure against both competitors and allies, it is possible that U.S. foreign policy could become even less predictable.

The international community should therefore not expect a straightforward return to the U.S. foreign policy that prevailed before Trump's presidency.

What Do the U.S. Election Results Mean for Lithuania?

For Lithuania, the Democratic victory in Congress is generally a positive development, but it does not guarantee complete stability in U.S. foreign policy.

The new Congress is likely to take a more active role in defending NATO commitments, preserving the U.S. military presence in Europe, and supporting continued assistance to Ukraine. This is particularly important for Lithuania, which is located on NATO's eastern flank and faces a direct security threat from Russia.

Nevertheless, congressional support cannot fully replace the president's role in upholding U.S. security commitments. If Donald Trump decides to link security guarantees to trade issues or additional financial demands, Congress may not always be able to prevent such decisions.

Lithuania should therefore strengthen its relationships not only with the U.S. presidential administration but also with members of Congress, representatives of both political parties, and other U.S. political institutions.

Equally important are Lithuania's own investments in defense and efforts to strengthen European military capabilities. These demonstrate to U.S. partners that the security of the Baltic states is a shared transatlantic interest.

The Coming Months Will Reveal the Direction of U.S. Policy

The newly elected members of Congress will take office on January 3, 2027. Until then, Donald Trump will continue working with the current Congress.

Once the new Congress begins its work, it will become clearer whether the changed balance of political power will encourage a more consistent U.S. foreign policy or become another source of political instability.

Lithuania should be prepared for both scenarios by strengthening cooperation with U.S. institutions, investing in its own security, and working to ensure that transatlantic commitments remain strong regardless of political developments in Washington.